India's rupee is likely to remain under pressure due to high prices of crude oil and other commodities, and may stabilise at around 79-80 against the US dollar in the near term, say experts amid limited headroom available with the Reserve Bank to check the weakening of the domestic currency. The currency has slumped over 5 per cent this year after Russia's invasion of Ukraine sent international crude oil prices soaring to a decade high. On Monday, rupee ended at a fresh all-time low of 78.34 (provisional) against the US dollar.
The rupee fell 1.87 percent against the dollar this week, its biggest fall since late April.
Bangladesh is in turmoil, which is not good news for India, which shares a porous 4000 km border with it. There is a danger of fundamentalism growing there, and India has to move in to reset its ties with the new dispensation before China and Pakistan make capital out of it, alerts Ramesh Menon.
Foreign currency assets, which are a major component of the overall reserves, rose by $646.4 million to $386.762 billion.
Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Wednesday exuded confidence that inflation would further decline and the government is on track to meet its budgetary target for deficit and said that there is no fear of stagflation in India. Replying to the debate on first batch of Supplementary Demands for Grants 2022-23 in Lok Sabha, the finance minister said inflation has come down and it is now in the tolerable band of the RBI. Inflation has been declining since April 2022 and it is declining further, she said.
Domestic exporters on Monday expressed concerns over the crisis in Bangladesh and said the developments in the neighbouring country would have implications on bilateral trade. However, exporters expect that the situation may normalise soon. According to exporters, they are already facing disruptions in exports to Bangladesh due to a shortage of foreign exchange in that country.
The rupee depreciated 40 paise to an all-time low of 81.93 against the US dollar in early trade on Wednesday as the strengthening of the American currency and risk-averse sentiment among investors weighed on the local unit. Moreover, a negative trend in domestic equities and significant foreign fund outflows sapped investor appetite, forex traders said. At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 81.90 against the greenback, then fell to 81.93, registering a fall of 40 paise over its previous closing.
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The country has enough forex reserves to meet the demand.
India's macroeconomic fundamentals are strong to deal with global challenges and the central government is committed to sticking to the fiscal deficit target of 6.4 per cent of the GDP for the current fiscal, official sources said on Monday. The government is taking steps to deal with the spiralling crude oil prices in the international market, the sources said. India meets nearly 85 per cent of its oil demand through imports and a weaker rupee makes imports costlier.
Heightened volatility makes the debt rollovers difficult.
Mumbai-based Weizmann, part of a diversified group, will take to court its former partner Western Union Holdings, the American money-transfer giant, alleging that the United States-based company has imitated its trademark and logo. This, its lawyers say, constitutes a case of infringement and dilution of its intellectual-property rights.
The rupee on Tuesday fell to a two-month low of 54.78 against the US dollar.
Gold prices have surged nearly 18 per cent, so far, in the calendar year 2022 (CY22) to around $2,050 per ounce against the backdrop of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and there is more headroom over the next few months, believe analysts at Goldman Sachs who expect the yellow metal to become costlier by another 25 per cent to $2,500 an ounce by the year-end. Goldman Sachs, earlier, had raised its 12-month gold price forecast to $2,150 per ounce considering that an impending US growth slowdown would lead to increased concerns of a US recession and incentivise 300 tonnes of inflows into gold ETFs. At the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine tensions, Goldman Sachs had suggested the resultant rally in commodities could deteriorate the developed market (DM) growth-inflation mix, increase concerns of a American recession, and push gold ETF inflows to 600 tonnes and, in turn, lift gold prices to $2,350 an ounce in 12 months.
India's reserves have been skyrocketing, reaching $ 260 billion as of end October 2007. This makes India the fifth largest holder of reserves in the world. Without the sustained appreciation of the rupee, the buildup of reserves would have been even larger.
The Reserve Bank of India on Friday decided to leave benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4 per cent but maintained an accommodative stance as the economy faces heat of the second Covid wave.
Banks had raised about $34 billion through the FCNR (B) from deposits from NRIs in September 2013.
In the past two months, FIIs have pumped over Rs 18,000 crore into Indian equity. The Nifty is up by 8% over that time period, as a result. The rupee is also up 2.5 per cent versus the dollar
It has been a choppy calendar year 2022 (CY22) for global financial markets amid the spectre of rising inflation that led most central banks, especially the US Federal Reserve (US Fed), to tighten their monetary policy. Most equity indices across the globe have seen a sharp fall from their respective peak levels in this backdrop. FTSE India, for instance, has corrected 16 per cent from its October peak.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has announced a dollar-rupee two-year sell-buy swap auction for $5 billion on March 8, which will suck out rupee liquidity from the system. The swap will be in the nature of a simple sell/buy foreign exchange from the RBI side, in which a bank will buy US dollars from the central bank and simultaneously agree to sell the same amount of US dollars at the end of the swap period. "With a view to elongating the maturity profile of its forward book and smoothen the receivables relating to forward assets, it has been decided to undertake sell/buy swap auction of $5 billion on March 8, 2022," the RBI said in a statement. The auction cut-off will be based on the premium amount in paisa terms up to two decimal points.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will have to take far more pro-active steps to rebuild forex reserves, because if the status quo remains, rupee could touch 75 per US dollar by the end of 2014, Bank of America Merrill Lynch said in a report.
His about-turn in the farm laws proves that he sees everything in just one dimension: Politics. That helps sometimes. But not always, observes T C A Srinivasa-Raghavan.
Forex reserves include a country's gold holdings and convertible foreign currencies held in its banks, including special drawing rights and exchange reserve balances, with the International Monetary Fund.
The rupee appreciated 7 paise to 79.74 against the US dollar in early trade on Thursday as a positive trend in domestic equities supported the local unit. However, a strong American currency overseas and forex outflows restricted the rupee's gain, dealers said. At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 79.72 against the American dollar, then went lower to trade at 79.74 against the greenback in early deals, registering a gain of 7 paise over the last close.
Dulat, however, pointedly said engagement with Pakistan has always been "influenced by domestic politics".
Bank of America (BofA) Securities expects India to be the third-largest economy in the world by 2031. The economic rise could become a reality by 2028, but the Covid pandemic delayed the pace, BofA Securities economists Indranil Sen Gupta and Aastha Gudwani wrote in a report.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPI) have pulled out $3.5 billion from India's equity markets so far this month. The selling comes on the back of election-induced volatility and the rotation of flows from India to China, where stocks are available at half the valuations. If the selling pressure remains at the current level, this will be the highest FPI pullout since January 2023.
Inflation target remains 5% for January 2017.
Inflows of hot money or short-term funds by way of non-resident Indian deposits are not expected
The finance ministry on Monday said the ability of the Reserve Bank to intervene in the forex market to arrest the fall in rupee is limited, even as the Indian currency declined to a 32-month low of Rs 51.50 per US dollar in the early trade.
The RBI opened a forex swap window in August to meet the entire daily dollar requirements of three oil marketing companies as the rupee depreciated to an all-time low of 68.85 against the US currency.
We have a plan that involves speeding up the convertibility process along with a commitment to a market-determined exchange rate.
Justifying the hike in customs duty on gold in the Budget, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee today said its huge imports cause strain on the balance of payment and affect exchange rate, but it does not have any direct bearing on the forex reserve.
These are the highlights of RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das's statement and resolution of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC):
This facility will be available for cost reduction forex option structures in which the liability of the buyer will not exceed the net premium payable to the bank, RBI said in a notification.
Y V Reddy on Saturday took over as the governor of the Reserve Bank of India.
The RBI also asked the oil marketing companies to smoothen their daily dollar demand so that upcoming bunched up demand was covered in advance in forward markets or on days with low dollar demand.
The RBI also asked the oil marketing companies to smoothen their daily dollar demand so that upcoming bunched up demand was covered in advance in forward markets or on days with low dollar demand.
India spends significantly less on defence than could be expected from a country that faces simultaneous armed threats from two hostile neighbours -- China and Pakistan.
Lauding India for its "comfortable" foreign exchange reserves, the International Monetary Fund said the country was not in need of any assistance from it.
Is this the time to use India's forex reserves to bail out Dubai? The emirate might be grateful, but how would the others in the United Arab Emirates react? asks TVR Shenoy.
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